Prof. Dr. Daron Acemoğlu’dan seçim değerlendirmesi: Sonuç nedeniyle hayal kırıklığına uğramamak zor

Massachusetts Teknoloji Enstitüsü (MİT) öğretim üyesi, ekonomist Prof. Dr. Daron Acemoğlu, 14 Mayıs’ta gerçekleştirilen cumhurbaşkanlığı ve TBMM seçimlerini yaptığı sosyal medya paylaşımlarıyla değerlendirdi.

Prof. Dr. Acemoğlu, seçim sonucu nedeniyle hayal kırıklığına uğramamanın zor olduğunu belirterek, ekonomideki kötü yönetim ve yolsuzlukların seçmen üzerindeki etkisinin beklendiği kadar büyük olmadığını yazdı.

Acemoğlu, seçmenlerin aşırı sağa kaydığı tespitini yaparken, ilk turu yüzde 49’un üzerinde oyla tamamlayan AKP Genel Başkanı ve Cumhurbaşkanı Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’ı bir kez daha hafife aldıklarının ortaya çıktığını vurguladı.

Deprem bölgesinde AKP’nin “çok iyi” bir performans gösterdiğini söyleyen Acemoğlu, yıllar boyu süren yolsuzlukların 6 Şubat’ta gerçekleşen depremlerde sorumlu olduğunu, ancak yeni konutlar ve istihdam sözlerinin seçmende etki yarattığını düşünüyor.

Seçim sonuçlarının Türkiye’deki kurumlar için kötü haber olduğunu yazan Acemoğlu, şunları belirtti:

“Demokrasi açısından durum daha bile kötü olabilir. AKP, TBMM’de sandalye kaybetse de muhalefet şu anda daha zayıf ve daha parçalı. Üstelik, CHP’nin koalisyonu bir arada tutmak için müttefiklerine birçok parlamento sandalyesi verdi (bu bir hata olabilir). “

Reflections on the Turkish election.
0. It’s hard not to be disappointed with the outcome. Erdogan close to a victory, even if there will most likely be a runoff. This is worse than most of us expected.

— Daron Acemoglu (@DAcemogluMIT) May 15, 2023

1. To make sense of it, it is important to first recognize that the Turkish electorate has become very nationalistic. The far-right MHP, allied with Erdogan, received 10% of the vote, despite the fact that nationalist votes were split between Erdogan, MHP, Iyi Parti and others.

— Daron Acemoglu (@DAcemogluMIT) May 15, 2023

2. The president and his allies completely controlled TV and print media and used it to fan the flames of nationalism, esp. with allegations of the opposition being in cahoots with Kurdish separatists. Combined with Kilicdaroglu being an Alevi, this may have been effective.

— Daron Acemoglu (@DAcemogluMIT) May 15, 2023

3. Economic mismanagement and endemic corruption did not have as wide appeal as many (including myself) thought. These mattered in metropolitan areas, but not in places where AKP built and used its patronage networks.

— Daron Acemoglu (@DAcemogluMIT) May 15, 2023

4. Most jarringly, AKP did very well in major earthquake areas. This is where its patronage network mattered a lot. Years of municipal and higher-level corruption were responsible for the severity of the effects of earthquake and deaths. But promises of housing and jobs worked.

— Daron Acemoglu (@DAcemogluMIT) May 15, 2023

5. It turned out that many of us, once again, underestimated Erdogan’s political skills and ability to read and control the situation. Media dominance matters, but it goes beyond that. This part is bad news for democracies all around the world, not just in Turkey.

— Daron Acemoglu (@DAcemogluMIT) May 15, 2023

6. All of this is bad news for the future of Turkish institutions. The judiciary and law enforcement have lost all independence. Combined with powerful corruption networks (centered on the construction industry) and the situation of the media, this is bad news indeed.

— Daron Acemoglu (@DAcemogluMIT) May 15, 2023

7. W also have to recognize and learn from the electoral success of the machine that AKP built. This is part of democratic functioning, but it isn’t “truly democratic” because of repression, media control and intimidation against opponents and opposition (some of who are in jail)

— Daron Acemoglu (@DAcemogluMIT) May 15, 2023

8. But for democracy, things may be even worse. Though AKP has lost parliamentary seats, the opposition is now weaker and more fragmented. All the more so because CHP gave away several parliamentary seats to allies to keep the coalition together (which may have been a mistake).

— Daron Acemoglu (@DAcemogluMIT) May 15, 2023

9. Worse news for the country, the economy is in shatters. AKP has run down reserves and hugely expanded promises and spending to bolster up its patronage network. I don’t know how the country can stave of economic collapse.

— Daron Acemoglu (@DAcemogluMIT) May 15, 2023

10. One concern was that economic crisis would arrive under an opposition government (which did not seem to fully understand the severity of the situation in my opinion) and would tarnish the reputation of CHP and others. Now AKP, who broke it, will have to try to fix the economy

— Daron Acemoglu (@DAcemogluMIT) May 15, 2023

11. Unfortunately, I don’t see any sign that AKP will be able to deal with the crisis either. There are few qualified people to take this task on board, and corruption and mismanagement are likely to continue. I am worried for the future of the economy and democracy.

— Daron Acemoglu (@DAcemogluMIT) May 15, 2023

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